Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 09 2024 00:53:26

ACUS01 KWNS 090053
SWODY1
SPC AC 090051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Synopsis...
A broad stratiform rain shield persists across much of the mid to
lower MS River Valley, spreading into the Southeast states. 00 UTC
soundings from the region show minimal buoyancy, but low to
mid-level warm advection, coupled with weak deep ascent/mid-level
cooling, will continue to promote the potential for sporadic
lightning flashes through the overnight/early morning hours. Weak
convection has been noted across parts of eastern KS and into MO in
the vicinity of the mid-level vorticity maximum where temperatures
aloft are relatively cooler and ascent is somewhat stronger.
Although model guidance appears to be overzealous in depicting
MUCAPE based on the observed 00 UTC SGF sounding, weak convective
towers noted in IR imagery in proximity to the vorticity maximum,
along with a weak signal for CI across eastern MO/western IL,
prompted a northward expansion of the thunder area (though the
probability of lightning remains fairly low at around 10%).

...Moore.. 12/09/2024

$$

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