Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Dec 09 2024 00:50:35 FOUS30 KWBC 090050 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 750 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2024 Day 1 Valid 01Z Mon Dec 09 2024 - 12Z Mon Dec 09 2024 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ....01Z Update... The inherited Marginal was trimmed on the western side where the rain has ended or will end soon. Elsewhere no changes were made. Rates have stayed below 1 inch per hour so far. Any flash flooding through Monday morning will be very isolated. Wegman ....Previous Discussion... The inherited Marginal Risk area was maintained for this update, suggesting that any flash flooding should remain localized today, as rainfall rates will generally remain capped below 1"/hr (with lacking instability being the primary limiting factor). The heaviest rains for the period are expected in the middle of the Marginal Risk area over northern Mississippi, where an interaction with a front in that area will lead to greater forcing than areas farther south along the Gulf Coast. Where the front adds additional forcing, localized convective bursts may be embedded within the broader rainfall shield. Hydrologically, most if not all of the soils in the are are at or below average for moisture. Low/dry creek beds should easily handle most of the light to briefly moderate rainfall rates. Any isolated flooding will be in any urban areas, as well as other low- lying or more flood-prone areas. Churchill/Wegman Day 2 Valid 12Z Mon Dec 09 2024 - 12Z Tue Dec 10 2024 ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ....2030Z Update... In coordination with LIX/Slidell, LA forecast office, the inherited Slight Risk was expanded south to include the rest of the Mississippi Delta as well as the towns along Bayous Lafourche and Terrebonne. The focus for the heaviest rain on Monday is likely to include the New Orleans Metro and points south. The storms will track east-northeastward from Louisiana through the western Florida Panhandle. Since many of these areas are urban and therefore more prone to flooding, the potential for some convection, even if instability is limited, is still enough to forecast widely scattered instances of flash flooding. The surrounding Marginal Risk was left largely unchanged. Wegman ....Previous Discussion... The shortwave trough responsible for heavy rainfall on Sunday over much of the Lower MS Valley looks to eject northeastward into the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic on Monday, bringing largely beneficial rainfall (with totals generally well under 1") to much of the Northeast. Farther south along the central Gulf Coast, a weaker shortwave within the southern stream may locally enhance heavy rainfall along a trailing cold front. The inherited Slight Risk in this area was maintained, mainly from the I-10 & I-12 corridors from Baton Rouge east to Biloxi, where the flooding potential appears greatest in urban and more flood-prone areas (given relatively dry antecedent conditions and streamflows normal to below normal). There is still some question as to how far east the heavy rainfall threat will extend (as the ECMWF and ECENS have been persistent outliers suggesting an eastward extension into the FL Panhandle and surrounding southeast AL and southwest GA), but the signal for localized totals of 2"+ are maximized near the Slight Risk (and confined to where instability and forcing are greatest). Churchill Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Dec 10 2024 - 12Z Wed Dec 11 2024 ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA TO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ....2030Z Update... The Slight Risk area inherited from the previous forecast was nudged a bit to the north with this update to now include portions of northeastern Georgia, western South Carolina and southwestern North Carolina with this update. Meanwhile the Slight was removed out of the Florida Panhandle. A strong upper level trough and attendant cold front will swing eastward across the Southeast on Tuesday and especially Tuesday night. The greatest forcing with the front and southerly flow ahead of it will likely be focused into Georgia and the Carolinas...with less forcing further south along the Florida Panhandle. While convection will still be present along the Gulf Coast, it will become better organized as it moves inland into northern Georgia and the Carolinas, hence the expansion of the Slight Risk into those areas. Despite the long stretch of very dry weather into the Carolinas, 1-3 inches of rain in a short period of time could still cause flooding issues, particularly in urbanized areas and small creeks and streams which fill up quickly. Wegman ....Previous Discussion... Large scale upper trough will be digging into the central US by Tuesday, setting the stage for more organized heavy rainfall into portions of the Southeast. Initially positively tilted, the trough looks to quickly take on a more neutral tilt over the course of the course of the day, as an associated 250 mb jet streak strengthens from ~110 kts to ~170 kts over 24 hours (with our area of interest for the Slight Risk located near the right-entrance region). As with prior days, instability once again looks to be the primary limiting factor, and this is particularly the case farther north into the Carolinas. While the GFS/GEFS depict 2-4" localized totals into northern GA and western SC, the ECMWF/ECENS largely limit this threat (for 2" and 3" exceedance) a bit farther south into central GA, southeast AL, and the FL Panhandle (where the inherited Slight Risk was maintained and adjusted a bit based on the new model data). Given relatively dry antecedent conditions and associated 3-6 hr FFGs generally ranging from 3.0-4.0", the Slight is on the lower-end of the 15-40% probability distribution, suggesting widely scattered instances of flooding (at best). Churchill Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5SZlJqqpkConkVhBR8X9t_Kn5AWuq_Euj9KRTE_t9lSH= utH7tgQMm51umoaf9HLGwh4F0lyxb5sFwj8y3TPRXbgXvI8$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5SZlJqqpkConkVhBR8X9t_Kn5AWuq_Euj9KRTE_t9lSH= utH7tgQMm51umoaf9HLGwh4F0lyxb5sFwj8y3TPRtL1mvsA$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5SZlJqqpkConkVhBR8X9t_Kn5AWuq_Euj9KRTE_t9lSH= utH7tgQMm51umoaf9HLGwh4F0lyxb5sFwj8y3TPR2hNynDA$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .