Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 08 2024 19:42:23

ACUS01 KWNS 081942
SWODY1
SPC AC 081940

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Sun Dec 08 2024

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....20z...
No changes, overall severe potential remains very low. Extensive
cloud cover and stratiform precipitation have stunted the inland
advection/development of a higher theta-E air mass onshore.
Short-term model guidance does suggest this may change over the next
several hours as forcing for ascent and weak surface pressure falls
intensify this evening and overnight. Steepening mid-level lapse
rates and increasing surface moisture could support marginal
buoyancy overlapping with the strong vertical shear as far inland as
central MS. An isolated stronger storm capable of damaging gusts is
possible this evening and into the first part of the overnight
hours. However, the narrow warm sector and poor diurnal timing
suggest the risk for severe storms is very low. Isolated lightning
flashes will remain possible beneath the cold core low over parts of
the Pacific Northwest this afternoon/evening, see the prior
discussion.

...Lyons.. 12/08/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024/

....Lower MS Valley...
A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle
today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern
Mexico into the lower MS Valley.  Broad large-scale ascent has
resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight
and this morning.  This regime is expected to shift eastward today
into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight.
Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is
a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into
western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds.
However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat
appears too low to introduce probabilities.

$$

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