Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 08 2024 10:01:46

ACUS48 KWNS 081001
SWOD48
SPC AC 081000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a deep upper trough
will be over much of the central and eastern CONUS early
D4/Wednesday morning. At the same time, a surface low is forecast to
be over eastern PA, with an attendant cold front extending
southwestward from this low across the central Carolinas,
southeastern GA, and northern FL.

A shortwave trough is forecast to move within the larger upper
troughing, moving from the TN Valley/Southeast through the
Mid-Atlantic on D4/Wednesday. This evolution will help induce a more
negative tilt to the parent troughing while encouraging an eastward
shift and deamplification as well. The cold front will also quickly
shift eastward off the East Coast. A fairly narrow warm sector may
precede this front, but poor lapse rates will limit instability.
This low buoyancy will counter the strong shear expected, resulting
in mostly weak updrafts and tempering any severe potential.

Stable conditions are expected across the CONUS on D5/Thursday as
high pressure shifts from the northern Plains into the OH Valley.
Some modest moisture return may potentially begin across TX on
D6/Friday ahead of a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough
expected to move across the southern Plains late D6/Friday and early
D7/Saturday. Guidance varies on the strength and speed of this wave,
limiting predictability, but some thunderstorms are possible across
central/east TX and LA late D6/Friday and early D7/Saturday as this
wave interacts with the return moisture.

...Mosier.. 12/08/2024

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