Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Dec 08 2024 08:27:19

ACUS03 KWNS 080827
SWODY3
SPC AC 080826

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
southern Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida
Panhandle on Tuesday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
Deep upper troughing is forecast to cover much of the CONUS early
Tuesday, anchored by a shortwave trough moving into the southern
High Plains. This shortwave is expected to continue eastward across
the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, ending the period over the
TN Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral
tilt to the parent upper troughing while also significantly
strengthening the mid-level flow through its eastern periphery.
Consequently, a belt of 100-120 kt 500 mb flow will likely extend
from AL into the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning.

At the surface, a low associated with a leading shortwave trough is
expected to progress from the ArkLaMiss northeastward through the TN
Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push across the
Southeast. By early Wednesday, this front will likely extend from a
low over eastern PA southwestward through the eastern FL Panhandle.
A moderately moist warm sector will precede this front,
characterized by mid 60s dewpoints throughout much of the region.
Even with this low-level moisture in place, overall buoyancy will be
mitigated by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles.

While buoyancy will be minimal (i.e. less than 750 J/kg),
surface-based storms appear probable along and just ahead of the
front during the afternoon across portions of southern AL, southwest
GA, and the adjacent FL Panhandle. The strengthening low to
mid-level flow will result in long hodographs indicative of an
environment that supports organized storm structures. A gradually
narrowing warm sector will likely limit the eastern extent of the
severe threat.

...Mosier.. 12/08/2024

$$

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