Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 07 2024 09:53:38

ACUS48 KWNS 070953
SWOD48
SPC AC 070951

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Extensive upper troughing is expected to cover much of central North
America early D4/Tuesday. This trough is then expected to continue
eastward as a shortwave trough progresses through its base, helping
to sharpen the trough and strengthening mid-level flow. Consensus
within the guidance places a 100-120 kt 500 mb jet streak from AL
through the central Appalachians on D5/Wednesday. The embedded
shortwave is forecast to continue quickly eastward/northeastward
across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on D5/Wednesday, helping to
induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing.

A strong cold front will likely accompany this system, progressing
eastward through the MS and OH Valleys and Southeast on D4/Tuesday,
and off the East Coast on D5/Wednesday. Favorable low-level moisture
may be in place ahead of this front across the Southeast on
D4/Tuesday. However, a front-parallel orientation of the deep-layer
shear is anticipated, and buoyancy will likely remain modest,
limiting severe potential. Favorable low-level moisture may exist
ahead of the front across the Mid-Atlantic on D5/Wednesday as well.
However, poor lapse rates should keep buoyancy low and the current
expectation is that updrafts will struggle to maintain depth,
limiting the severe potential.

Consensus within the guidance is for the pattern to trend less
amplified in the wake of the strong mid-week upper trough from
D6/Thursday through D8/Saturday, with several shortwave troughs
likely traversing the more zonal flow. Guidance varies on the
location, strength, and speed of these shortwaves, but the impact of
these waves will likely be mitigated by predominantly stable surface
conditions on D6/Thursday and D7/Friday. Some moisture return may
begin on D7/Friday across the southern Plains, continuing into
D8/Saturday, but guidance currently suggests that buoyancy will
remain limited.

...Mosier.. 12/07/2024

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