Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 07 2024 08:18:39

ACUS03 KWNS 070818
SWODY3
SPC AC 070817

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into
much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The probability
for severe thunderstorms is low.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification
on Monday with a broad and deep upper trough expected to extend
across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial development
of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough moves through
the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the
Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario.

A surface low attend to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes
shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent
shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push
southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys. A
secondary low is forecast to develop along the front across north
TX, before then moving eastward and ending the period over northern
LA/west-central MS.

Moderate low-level moisture will precede this secondary low and
associated cold front, with mid 60s dewpoints likely in place over
the TX Coast and the Lower MS Valley Monday afternoon. Even so, low
to mid-level southwesterly flow will result in relatively warm
profiles, keeping buoyancy minimal. Thunderstorms are possible
within the broad warm sector expected to be in place from the Lower
MS Valley into the Southeast, particularly along the front where
forcing will be stronger. The limited buoyancy is expected to keep
the severe potential low.

...Mosier.. 12/07/2024

$$

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