Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Dec 07 2024 05:44:09

ACUS01 KWNS 070544
SWODY1
SPC AC 070542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Elevated convection will likely continue across a large portion of
Texas on Saturday, with occasional/embedded thunderstorms. No severe
weather is expected.

....Discussion...
As an upper trough shifts away from New England/across the Canadian
Maritimes, a gradual trend toward more zonal flow will occur in the
main branch of polar westerlies across the northern CONUS.  Farther
south, a low within the southern branch of split flow will meander
east-northeastward across northern Mexico, southern Arizona, and
southern New Mexico, reaching the southern High Plains late.

Ahead of this low, a broad, weak warm-advection regime will persist
across the southern Plains vicinity.  Within this area of warm
advection/ascent, persistent convection will be maintained through
the period.  Therein, occasional/elevated thunderstorms are expected
-- particularly across portions of central and eastern Texas.  Given
weak CAPE, and the elevated nature of the convection atop a
cold/stable boundary layer, severe weather is not expected.

...Goss/Moore.. 12/07/2024

$$

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