Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 06 2024 19:37:07

ACUS01 KWNS 061937
SWODY1
SPC AC 061935

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Fri Dec 06 2024

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated weak thunderstorms
are possible today from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico to
East Texas.

....20Z...
No changes. Weak mid-level warm advection will support isolated
showers and occasional elevated thunderstorms over parts of southern
TX and the Southwest this evening and tonight. Severe storms are not
expected given the very weak buoyancy.

...Lyons.. 12/06/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024/

....AZ/NM/TX...
A weak upper low is centered over southeast AZ this morning, with
the subtropical upper jet extending from northern Mexico into TX.
Weak large-scale ascent beneath the jet, coupled with increasing
low-level warm/moist advection will yield gradually increasing risk
of showers and a few widely scattered elevated thunderstorms through
tonight across much of central/south TX and southern AZ/NM.  Weak
instability will preclude the risk of severe thunderstorms.

$$

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