Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Dec 06 2024 00:22:22

FOUS30 KWBC 060022
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
722 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2024

Day 1
Valid 01Z Fri Dec 06 2024 - 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Orrison


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024 - 12Z Sat Dec 07 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Dec 07 2024 - 12Z Sun Dec 08 2024

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NEAR THE TEXAS/
LOUISIANA BORDER...

A low-level jet streaming Gulf moisture northward across eastern
Texas will interact with a strong shortwave trough which will move
northeastward out of New Mexico and into the central Plains. PWATs
along the upper Texas coast are expected to increase to 1.5-1.75"
and instability is forecast to be fairly coastal -- in many ways,
similar to the heavy rain event from Wednesday/Wednesday night.
The heaviest rain is forecast to be on Saturday night due to the
typical nocturnal strengthening of the low-level jet. Soils have
become a bit more saturated in this region due to the recent
rainfall, and some rainfall is expected on Friday. Isolated flash
flooding is possible, especially in areas of more saturated soils,
urban areas, and flood prone/low lying areas. Some restriction was
made to the western side of the Marginal Risk area where minimal
rainfall occurred recently, and for the moment, rainfall volume for
the Saturday/Saturday night time frame does not appear=20
significant.

Roth


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ZcHtKYOWnIpUYYjGMHfAjt4el__rVU4on2C2XOw0Z1E=
qyXjawyVgXiYmZFBeJJEFngla9amNyHYtv6IabgwKhL6y68$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ZcHtKYOWnIpUYYjGMHfAjt4el__rVU4on2C2XOw0Z1E=
qyXjawyVgXiYmZFBeJJEFngla9amNyHYtv6IabgwKPqwb80$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ZcHtKYOWnIpUYYjGMHfAjt4el__rVU4on2C2XOw0Z1E=
qyXjawyVgXiYmZFBeJJEFngla9amNyHYtv6Iabgw1CppIX0$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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