Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Dec 05 2024 19:29:19

FOUS30 KWBC 051929
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2024

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Dec 05 2024 - 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Gallina


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024 - 12Z Sat Dec 07 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Dec 07 2024 - 12Z Sun Dec 08 2024

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NEAR THE TEXAS/
LOUISIANA BORDER...

A low-level jet streaming Gulf moisture northward across eastern
Texas will interact with a strong shortwave trough which will move
northeastward out of New Mexico and into the central Plains. PWATs
along the upper Texas coast are expected to increase to 1.5-1.75"
and instability is forecast to be fairly coastal -- in many ways,
similar to the heavy rain event from Wednesday/Wednesday night.=20
The heaviest rain is forecast to be on Saturday night due to the=20
typical nocturnal strengthening of the low-level jet. Soils have
become a bit more saturated in this region due to the recent
rainfall, and some rainfall is expected on Friday. Isolated flash=20
flooding is possible, especially in areas of more saturated soils,
urban areas, and flood prone/low lying areas. Some restriction was
made to the western side of the Marginal Risk area where minimal
rainfall occurred recently, and for the moment, rainfall volume for
the Saturday/Saturday night does not appear significant.

Roth


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-XvpXugjrEoN_B26tO6ShvyLtHR-RY3M3p1bZG4I8mQ7=
nqadScNtj4t1ReUYXy8SHfjF-NU7u7Vib_arNbyP0fOaxtE$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-XvpXugjrEoN_B26tO6ShvyLtHR-RY3M3p1bZG4I8mQ7=
nqadScNtj4t1ReUYXy8SHfjF-NU7u7Vib_arNbyPFIwonnk$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-XvpXugjrEoN_B26tO6ShvyLtHR-RY3M3p1bZG4I8mQ7=
nqadScNtj4t1ReUYXy8SHfjF-NU7u7Vib_arNbyPpO22DRA$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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