Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Dec 04 2024 19:48:49 ACUS01 KWNS 041948 SWODY1 SPC AC 041946 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from North/East Texas to the ArkLaMiss this evening and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ....20Z Update... The previous forecast remains largely on track with minimal changes to the western edge of the thunder area. A large area of low-level warm-air advection is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of east-central TX and the ArkLaMiss. Elevated atop a relatively cool boundary layer, weak buoyancy and marginal deep-layer shear should limit the severe potential as storms gradually expand north and eastward into tonight. Farther south near the TX/LA Gulf Coast, scattered cloud breaks have materialized allowing for temperatures and surface dewpoints to warm into the low to mid 70s and upper 60s F, respectively. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, continued advection of the higher theta-E airmass inland could support stronger storm development near or just offshore late this afternoon and into the evening. Any stronger storms that do develop may exhibit weak low-level rotation due to large low-level hodographs near the coast. However, the confined nature of the weakly unstable warm sector and overall modest forcing for ascent should tend to limit storm intensity and the severe potential inland. ...Lyons.. 12/04/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024/ ....Synopsis... Scattered thunderstorms continue in East Texas and will spread into the ArkLaMiss through the remainder of today/tonight. Ahead of a very weak frontal wave along the middle Texas coast, a narrow zone of surface dewpoints in upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F will have some potential to advance inland along the immediate coast. This should continue into the evening/overnight into parts of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. ....Middle/Upper Texas Coast into Southwest Louisiana... Despite substantial cloud cover, a few surface observations in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay have warmed to the low 70s F. Dewpoints here have also risen to the upper 60s/low 70s F. It is possible a few more robust storms occur near the coast this afternoon into the evening, some of which may exhibit weak low-level rotation due to the low-level shear in the warm advection zone. However, weak lapse rates near the surface and aloft in combination with weak large-scale ascent suggest that storms will likely struggle to maintain intensity. That being said, the threat for severe weather continues to appear low today. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .