Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Dec 04 2024 18:49:22

FOUS30 KWBC 041849
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
149 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Dec 04 2024 - 12Z Thu Dec 05 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent. Forecast thinking based on 12z mesoscale guidance remains
unchanged as strengthening warm/moist advection atop a weak
frontal wave results in 2-4 inch rainfall totals focused across
east Texas and central Louisiana through early Thursday. However,
dry antecedent conditions, and consequently high FFG thresholds
suggest the threat of flash flooding, while non-zero, is less than
5%.

Asherman/Cook


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Dec 05 2024 - 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth/Wegman


Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024 - 12Z Sat Dec 07 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth/Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4a1XCT9ODTFuIFivB1-WiWNUUM41cXFjkAXFoS7XN4EV=
giJG6sjs2vQ0boXTbo2AYrFSQbCo_zaP9gdQeNOD8abPiNQ$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4a1XCT9ODTFuIFivB1-WiWNUUM41cXFjkAXFoS7XN4EV=
giJG6sjs2vQ0boXTbo2AYrFSQbCo_zaP9gdQeNODPpptC7M$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4a1XCT9ODTFuIFivB1-WiWNUUM41cXFjkAXFoS7XN4EV=
giJG6sjs2vQ0boXTbo2AYrFSQbCo_zaP9gdQeNODPcKnSKc$=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.