Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Dec 04 2024 15:54:41 FOUS30 KWBC 041554 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1054 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2024 Day 1 Valid 16Z Wed Dec 04 2024 - 12Z Thu Dec 05 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Forecast thinking based on 12z mesoscale guidance remains unchanged as strengthening warm/moist advection atop a weak=20 frontal wave results in 2-4 inch rainfall totals focused across=20 east Texas and central Louisiana through early Thursday. However,=20 dry antecedent conditions, and consequently high FFG thresholds=20 suggest the threat of flash flooding, while non-zero, is less than=20 5%.=20 Asherman/Cook Day 2 Valid 12Z Thu Dec 05 2024 - 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Wegman Day 3 Valid 12Z Fri Dec 06 2024 - 12Z Sat Dec 07 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Wegman Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!43BEBEqMMULz7u3LBP8TV-aI6yI9_ZbvD4VPNP2TO4q2= PKmaze_JaZq4080c2YgBzkADxiiz-8cyqQjl93ycOiucodM$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!43BEBEqMMULz7u3LBP8TV-aI6yI9_ZbvD4VPNP2TO4q2= PKmaze_JaZq4080c2YgBzkADxiiz-8cyqQjl93ycm2FmYyc$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!43BEBEqMMULz7u3LBP8TV-aI6yI9_ZbvD4VPNP2TO4q2= PKmaze_JaZq4080c2YgBzkADxiiz-8cyqQjl93yctnCOwXg$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .