Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Dec 04 2024 05:58:15 ACUS01 KWNS 040558 SWODY1 SPC AC 040556 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss today and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ....Synopsis and Discussion... A deep upper low will swing southeast toward the upper Great Lakes today, as an intense speed max moves southeastward across the upper MS Valley and Midwest. Meanwhile, a belt of 35-40 kt 500 mb westerlies will extend from northern MX across TX, with seasonably cool temperatures aloft. At the surface, a trough will exist near the TX Coast during day, and will translate east/northeast across southern LA through tonight. Moisture return with mid to perhaps upper 60s F dewpoints will extend from the middle to the upper TX Coast through 00Z, and spread across southern LA overnight. The combination of increasing moisture with sufficiently steep lapse rates aloft will favor scattered thunderstorms within the low-level warm advection regime. ....Southeast TX toward the lower MS Valley... Scattered showers and a few elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early this morning over parts of central TX, with more substantial storms possible along a north-south confluence line over the western Gulf of Mexico. While surface dewpoints are forecast to increase over land, low-level lapse rates will remain poor due to limited heating/cloud cover. Low-level SRH will increase within the warm advection zone, with values over 300 m2/s2 briefly coincident with SBCAPE of 500-750 J/kg. This will occur over eastern TX during the afternoon, with similar values into western LA during the evening. The primary mitigating factors to a tornado risk will be poor low-level lapse rates (as moisture returns into the relatively cool air mass), lack of any appreciable surface baroclinic zone, and marginal instability. These factors are expected to render much of the low-level SRH ineffective, reducing supercell potential over land. ...Jewell/Thornton.. 12/04/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .