Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Dec 03 2024 17:22:42 ACUS02 KWNS 031722 SWODY2 SPC AC 031720 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ....Synopsis... A shortwave trough over south-central Canada will dig south and east across much of the Great Lakes and Midwest vicinity on Wednesday. At the same time, a trough over the Southwest will become increasingly cut-off as shortwave ridging develops over the northern Rockies and southern Plains. Stronger deep-layer flow will generally remain confined to the Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as a strong jet streak enters the base of the deepening upper trough across those regions. However, moderately enhanced southern stream westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Southeast. A surface low over Ontario and the Great Lakes will shift east toward the Northeast, bringing a cold front south and east across much of the eastern half of the CONUS by Thursday morning. ....Southeast TX into LA... Ahead of the synoptic cold front, a weak surface low is forecast to develop northeast across southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley. A warm front will lift north during the morning and extend across portions of the Upper TX Coast and southern LA. This will allow for mid to upper 60s F dewpoints to spread north on increasing southerly low-level flow. At the same time, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet will develop over the region. This will result in vertically veering wind profiles. Enlarged, looping hodographs are evident in forecast soundings, with 0-1 km SRH near 150-200 m2/s2 by early evening. Effective shear magnitudes also are forecast to top out around 30-35 kt. While this typically would support organized convection, thermodynamic profiles suggest that surface based storms may be mostly confined to very near the coast, with increasing inhibition with northward extent. Furthermore, surface heating will be limited, and MLCAPE is expected to remain at or below 500 J/kg across most of the area. While a strong storm or two is possible near the coast, overall severe potential appears limited. ...Leitman.. 12/03/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .