Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Dec 03 2024 16:28:39 ACUS01 KWNS 031628 SWODY1 SPC AC 031626 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight along the lower/middle Texas Coast into central Texas, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ....Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the eastern CONUS will be reinforced by an amplifying and southeastward-digging shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through tonight. Surface high pressure across the Southeast and cool/stable low-level trajectories across most of the Gulf of Mexico will generally limit/spatially confine thunderstorm potential through the period. However, across TX weak mid-level height rises are expected, with persistent weak low-level ascent and moistening near a coastal front. This will further influenced by modestly increasing south-southeasterly low-level flow/warm advection late this evening and tonight. Elevated convection over inland areas on the cool side of the boundary may produce occasional lightning, potentially in a northward-expanding fashion across parts of central TX tonight into early Wednesday morning. Modest surface-based instability may develop inland along the immediate lower/middle TX coast late this afternoon into tonight, but low-level SRH and lapse rates/parcel accelerations are expected to remain weak. Therefore, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Gleason/Wendt.. 12/03/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .