Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 03 2024 08:04:10

ACUS48 KWNS 030804
SWOD48
SPC AC 030802

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Significant low-level moisture will remain offshore through the
middle of the weekend. However, by Sunday and especially Monday, the
GFS and ECMWF both show mid 60s dewpoints inland perhaps as far
north as the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Once this moisture moves
inland, some severe weather is possible. Greatest concern at this
time is Day8/Tuesday as both the ECMWF and GFS (as well as their
ensemble mean) have a strong, positively tilted mid-level trough
moving into the southern Plains with surface cyclogenesis. Despite
the mid 60s dewpoints inland, current forecast instability from the
ECMWF and GFS remains quite weak. This combined with uncertainty
regarding timing and evolution of the trough precludes any
significant severe weather concern at this time. However, this
period will continue to be monitored as the details become more
clear.

...Bentley.. 12/03/2024

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