Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Dec 03 2024 05:33:09

ACUS01 KWNS 030533
SWODY1
SPC AC 030531

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the south Texas Coast.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

....South Texas...

Weak mid-level height rises are forecast across deep south Texas
much of the period. With weak short-wave ridging expected to
dominate, it appears the LLJ will be one mechanism for weak
convection through the period. In addition, a coastal boundary will
also focus weak surface-based convection, where surface dew points
are able to hold in the mid 60s. Even so, low-level shear is
forecast to remain seasonally weak, despite the presence of
low-level warm advection. Latest model guidance suggests elevated
convection may evolve along the cool side of the boundary as parcels
lifted near 850mb do yield some MUCAPE, possibly enough for
lightning discharge within the strongest updrafts. Of more concern
will be the surface-based buoyancy that evolves near the coastal
boundary, as mid 60s surface dew points advance inland along the
south TX coast. Forecast soundings exhibit around 500 J/kg SBCAPE
within this environment, but shear will remain weak. Latest thinking
is any convection that evolves should remain unorganized and
updrafts are expected to be weak.

...Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/03/2024

$$

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