Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Dec 02 2024 19:46:37

ACUS01 KWNS 021946
SWODY1
SPC AC 021945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

...Thornton.. 12/02/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024/

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough will persist over the eastern states
today, while developing slowly eastward towards the western Atlantic
through tonight. Rather cold mid-level temperatures will be present
across the Great Lakes, which may support sporadic lightning flashes
with ongoing lake effect snow bands. The best chance for isolated
lightning appears to be with the band over Lake Huron.

Across deep south TX, the potential for thunderstorms over land
appears lower than earlier, as a stout cap noted on the observed 12Z
BRO sounding will likely inhibit deep convection. While there may
still be some chance for thunderstorms along/near a coastal surface
front, the better lightning potential should tend to remain offshore
through the end of the period.

$$

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