Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 29 2024 00:52:37

ACUS01 KWNS 290052
SWODY1
SPC AC 290051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...

....SUMMARY...
A strong storm or two will be possible over the next couple of hours
over the southeastern Georgia vicinity, after which storms diurnally
diminish.

....Discussion...
While most of the southeastern U.S. convection has moved off the
Atlantic Coast, in conjunction with the offshore advance of the
surface cold front, a minor uptick in coverage/intensity has
occurred over the past couple of hours across southeastern Georgia,
near the remnant front.

Around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is indicated within a narrow axis
along the front, which is thermodynamically supporting the
convection.  The flow field across this region is essentially
unidirectional/west-southwesterly through the lower half of the
troposphere, but with flow increasing with height to around 50 kt at
mid levels, shear remains sufficient to allow some updraft
organization.

Hints of a storm split are indicated by radar just southwest of
Waycross, GA -- suggesting weak supercell organization remains
possible.  The more prominent left-split member has maintained
rather vigorous appearance over the past 20 minutes or so, and as
such, a stronger gust or small hail would appear possible in the
short term.  Still, overall risk for severe-caliber events is quite
low, and will diminish over the next few hours.  At this time, will
maintain a very small portion of the MRGL risk over southeastern
Georgia, but expect any remnant potential to have ended by midnight.

...Goss.. 11/29/2024

$$

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