Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 28 2024 19:52:32

ACUS01 KWNS 281952
SWODY1
SPC AC 281950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN US...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible today
across parts of the Southeast.

....20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track. Although deep
convection continues to develop along the cold front pushing across
the Southeast, cells have struggled to maintain intensity - likely
owing to a combination of modest mid-level lapse rates (poor
vertical accelerations) and decreasing broadscale ascent as the
primary synoptic wave continues to shift into the Northeast. Despite
these limitations, the thermodynamic/kinematic environment from
northern FL into the Carolinas remains adequate for organized
convection, and latest high-res CAM solutions hint that one or two
intense thunderstorms remain possible - especially across southeast
GA into southern SC where the overlap of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE and
favorable low to mid-level flow is best. Aside from trimming
probabilities behind the cold front, 5% wind probabilities were
expanded slightly into northeast NC ahead of a convective line.
Regional VWPs have recently sampled 40-50 knot flow within the 1-2
km layer, suggesting that a few strong/severe wind gusts are
possible with this activity.

...Moore.. 11/28/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024/

....Southeast States...
Fast westerly flow aloft is present across the eastern CONUS, with a
progressive shortwave trough crossing the central/northern
Appalachians.  The associated cold front currently extends from VA
into parts of NC/SC/GA/AL to the FL panhandle.  Thunderstorms
along/ahead of the front have been very sparse with this system due
to veered low-level winds, weak convergence, and relatively poor
thermodynamic parameters.  This trend will likely continue today,
with only isolated convective elements achieving sufficient depth
for lightning.

Nevertheless, wind fields are quite strong across the pre-frontal
zone from north FL into NC, and appear conditionally sufficient for
a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado if a
thunderstorm can sustain.  The corridor that appears to have the
greatest potential for a strong storm or two runs across southern GA
into coastal SC, where daytime heating/destabilization will be
maximized.

$$

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