Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 28 2024 05:55:27

ACUS01 KWNS 280555
SWODY1
SPC AC 280553

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible today
across parts of the Southeast.

....Synopsis...
A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will encompass essentially the
entire U.S. today and tonight, while a primary short-wave trough
shifts eastward and then northeastward across the eastern third of
the country.

At the surface, a low associated with the aforementioned short-wave
trough should initially reside over the central Appalachians area of
western Virginia, with a cold front trailing southwestward to
southern Louisiana and coastal Texas.  The deepening low should move
quickly northeastward through the period -- across the Mid-Atlantic
region and southern New England through the afternoon and evening --
reaching the Canadian Maritimes late.  The trailing cold front
should move off the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coasts during the
afternoon, and by the end of the period should linger only across
far southern Florida.

....Eastern North Carolina southwestward to the central Gulf Coast...

Showers and a few thunderstorms should be ongoing in the vicinity of
the advancing cold front, from southeastern Virginia and eastern
North Carolina southwestward to southeastern Louisiana.  As the
upper short-wave trough to the north of the region continues moving
east-northeastward, veering low-level flow will limit convergence
along the front.  This, combined with low-level capping and modest
CAPE, should limit storm coverage and intensity through the day.

With that said, very strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will
reside across the area through the period.  As such, evolution of a
few stronger storms remains a possibility.  Therefore, will maintain
a low probability/all-hazards MRGL risk area ahead of the front,
with risk ending across Carolinas as the front moves offshore, and
diminishing over southern Georgia and northern Florida through
sunset.

...Goss/Squitieri.. 11/28/2024

$$

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