Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Nov 27 2024 19:35:24 ACUS01 KWNS 271935 SWODY1 SPC AC 271934 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into early Thanksgiving morning over eastern Mississippi, central and northern Alabama, and the western/central Florida Panhandle. ....20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest surface observations show moisture beginning to move inland across far eastern TX and the lower MS River Valley as a surface low deepens over OK. Recent CAM solutions have captured this trend well, but continue to suggest only sporadic thunderstorm coverage later tonight across the risk areas. See the previous discussion for additional details. ...Moore.. 11/27/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024/ ....Southeast States... A progressive and strong shortwave trough is moving across the central Rockies this morning, and will spread into the Plains tonight. Ahead of this system, low-level cyclogenesis will result in strengthening southwesterly low-level winds across the southeastern states. Gulf moisture will stream northward, with 60s dewpoints expected tonight across most areas from TN southward. A cold front will impinge on the low-level moisture after dark, leading to at least a conditional risk of a few intense thunderstorms. A strong low-level inversion is present across the southeast this morning, and will persist into the evening. However, increasing large scale ascent will slowly erode the cap, improving the potential for a few thunderstorms along the approaching cold front. This is most likely to occur after midnight, and mainly from eastern MS eastward across parts of AL into GA. Low-level wind fields are strong, suggesting some concern for gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado overnight. Farther south, morning model guidance continues to suggest the development of scattered thunderstorms along a pre-frontal convergence zone over southern AL and the FL Panhandle - mainly after 09z. Shear profiles are strong enough in this region for rotating storms, although the area is south of the low-level jet axis and displaced from the more favorable large scale forcing. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .