Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 27 2024 05:51:21

ACUS01 KWNS 270551
SWODY1
SPC AC 270549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into
early Thursday morning, from the lower Mississippi Valley into parts
of central and northern Alabama.

....Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States...
A mid-level trough will move across the southern and central Plains
today, and into the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Ahead of the
system, low-level moisture will return northward into the lower
Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. A capping
inversion is expected across the moist sector, which should limit
convective potential through much of the evening. As large-ascent
and mid-level temperatures cool due to the approach of the trough,
isolated to scattered convective development will become likely from
late evening in the overnight across central and northern
Mississippi.

RAP forecast soundings in north-central Mississippi by 06Z/Thursday
have MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 50
knots. This could support isolated supercell development as
convective coverage increases in the 06Z to 12Z timeframe. Isolated
severe wind gusts will be possible with rotating cells. In addition,
0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to increase to around 400
m2/s2 near the instability axis during the overnight, suggesting
potential for an isolated tornado threat. 700-500 mb lapse rates
around 8 C/km may also support a marginal hail threat. As the storms
move eastward into western and northern Alabama from late tonight
into the early morning hours on Thursday, an isolated severe threat
will likely continue.

...Broyles/Squitieri.. 11/27/2024

$$

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