Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 26 2024 15:59:36

FOUS30 KWBC 261559
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1059 AM EST Tue Nov 26 2024

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Nov 26 2024 - 12Z Wed Nov 27 2024

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...

A moderately strong atmospheric river continues to weaken across=20
central to southern CA as a dry airmass associated with an=20
approaching northern-stream shortwave erodes the main IVT axis over
the region. However, the favorable orientation of the subtropical=20
moisture plume and IVT could still favor brief periods of=20
..25-.50"/hour rainfall rates in the foothills of the southern=20
Sierra Nevada through this afternoon per the 6z HREF. Given the wet
antecedent conditions across the area, these additional rains are=20
expected to maintain an isolated flooding threat in the southern
Sierra Nevada before the atmospheric river wanes tonight.
=20
Asherman/Orrison

Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 27 2024 - 12Z Thu Nov 28 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Orrison


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 28 2024 - 12Z Fri Nov 29 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Orrison

Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!78Z3pIX1kTP-vHuzn_CeXO3Ntqar_LGEUXIBS_W40e4Z=
WMxIG5x1iLgRm3uodunzHV_1mjK336pDZYcbCbfehg1CrYA$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!78Z3pIX1kTP-vHuzn_CeXO3Ntqar_LGEUXIBS_W40e4Z=
WMxIG5x1iLgRm3uodunzHV_1mjK336pDZYcbCbfe_TkZxso$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!78Z3pIX1kTP-vHuzn_CeXO3Ntqar_LGEUXIBS_W40e4Z=
WMxIG5x1iLgRm3uodunzHV_1mjK336pDZYcbCbfeZ1WaC3o$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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