Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 26 2024 09:04:12

ACUS48 KWNS 260904
SWOD48
SPC AC 260902

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....D4/Friday...
While guidance continues to vary regarding frontal timing, even the
slower solutions have the front near or off of the Carolina coast by
12Z Friday. The trailing portion of the front will move across the
Florida Peninsula during the day. Some overlap of strong deep-layer
shear and modest instability may develop along/ahead of the front
across the peninsula, but a general weakening of large-scale ascent
with time could limit potential for robust storm development.

....D5/Saturday - D8/Tuesday...
Extended-range guidance generally depicts a persistent large-scale
mid/upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS from Saturday through
Tuesday, as multiple reinforcing shortwave troughs move
southeastward from Canada. A large and persistent surface ridge is
expected to inhibit low-level moisture return from the Gulf of
Mexico, resulting in low severe potential from this weekend into
early next week.

...Dean.. 11/26/2024

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