Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 25 2024 16:46:06 ACUS02 KWNS 251646 SWODY2 SPC AC 251644 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms still appears negligible across much of the U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night. ....Synopsis... While a modest, occluding surface cyclone undergoes some further deepening east of Georgian Bay into areas of Quebec to the southeast of James Bay, weak secondary cyclogenesis may ensue across southern New England into the Nova Scotia vicinity Tuesday through Tuesday night. It appears that a trailing cold front will advance east of the Appalachians and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast, before stalling across northern Florida and the northern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the period. In its wake, models indicate that similar strength cyclogenesis may quickly commence to the lee of the southern Rockies, downstream of a remnant mid-level short wave perturbation forecast to dig inland of the Oregon/northern California coast. ....Northern Intermountain Region/Great Basin... Boundary-layer destabilization beneath the mid-level cold core (including -28 to -30 C around 500 mb) of the inland migrating perturbation may become maximized across the southeastern Oregon and southern Idaho into western Wyoming vicinity by late Tuesday afternoon. However, even through peak heating, the extent to which a relatively cool/dry boundary layer can become supportive of convection capable of producing lightning remains unclear, based on forecast thermodynamic profiles. At this point, some lightning appears possible, but coverage probably will remain rather sparse. ....Atlantic Seaboard... Model output continues to suggest that mostly elevated pre-frontal destabilization will become less conducive to convection capable of producing lightning by/shortly after 12Z Tuesday, to the east of the Blue Ridge. Weak boundary-layer destabilization does appear possible during the day in a narrow corridor ahead of the slowing surface front, across parts of the Florida Panhandle and adjacent southeastern Alabama into southern Georgia. However, based on relatively warm lower/mid-levels evident in forecast soundings, and weak mid/upper forcing for ascent, probabilities for thunderstorm development still appears less than 10 percent. Guidance continues to indicate that the most substantive convective potential will become focused ahead the eastward advancing front, offshore of coastal areas near the Gulf Stream, by early Tuesday evening. ...Kerr.. 11/25/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .