Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 21 2024 05:19:30

ACUS01 KWNS 210519
SWODY1
SPC AC 210518

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible across southern New England
Thursday morning.

....Southern New England...

Strong upper low will shift southeast from the Great Lakes into the
upper Ohio Valley by late afternoon. This evolution will encourage
low-level warm advection across southern New England as a surface
low repositions itself off the middle Atlantic coast, south of Long
Island. Forecast soundings suggest weak elevated buoyancy will
develop north of this boundary as mid-level lapse rates will steepen
as 500mb temperatures cool in advance of the approaching trough.
Strongest elevated updrafts may exceed levels necessary for
lightning discharge, but this should mainly be prior to 18z.
Thereafter, deepest convection will focus offshore.

...Darrow/Wendt.. 11/21/2024

$$

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