Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 20 2024 19:51:55

ACUS01 KWNS 201951
SWODY1
SPC AC 201950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

....20z Update...
No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

...Thornton/Smith.. 11/20/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024/

....Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina...
Midday water-vapor imagery shows a cyclone over the Upper Midwest
that will move eastward across the Great Lakes through tonight.  A
cold front will advance eastward over these regions.  While
low-level moisture will gradually increase across NC into the
southern Mid-Atlantic by early evening, considerable cloud cover and
relatively meager lapse rates will only result in pockets of weak
instability. Nonetheless, low-topped convection should still form
along or just ahead of the cold front across eastern OH into western
PA and WV by late this afternoon according to the latest guidance.
This elevated convection is forecast to continue moving eastward
over the southern Mid-Atlantic this evening and overnight.  However,
boundary-layer instability is forecast to remain minimal with
eastward extent, which should limit the storm intensity.

....Coastal Pacific Northwest...
A powerful upper cyclone west of British Columbia will occlude and
gradually move away from the coast.  Low-level warm advection will
support intermittent low-topped convection across coastal portions
of the Pacific Northwest.  With surface dewpoints generally in the
low to mid 40s over land, instability will remain scant---precluding
a severe risk.

$$

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