Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 20 2024 09:06:52

ACUS48 KWNS 200906
SWOD48
SPC AC 200905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An upper trough will move out of the northeastern states from Sat/D4
into Sun/D5, with the ridge flattening over the Plains. This will
result in a broad belt of near zonal flow across much of the CONUS,
with perhaps a slight propensity for cyclonic height curvature over
the Great Lakes into eastern Canada.

Low-level moisture return will occur gradually, especially from
Mon/D6 onward when 60s dewpoints may extend from eastern TX into the
lower MS Valley. However, not until around Tue Night/D7 do most
models show any appreciable instability, and even then it will
likely be weak. As such, severe storms are not forecast. However, a
few strong storms cannot be ruled out by around Wed/D8 due to
several days of persistent moistening, especially if a shortwave
trough can amplify within the strong flow regime.

...Jewell.. 11/20/2024

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