Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 19 2024 19:36:50

ACUS01 KWNS 191936
SWODY1
SPC AC 191935

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low the
remainder of the afternoon thought tonight.

....20z Update - Central Gulf Coast vicinity...

Severe probabilities have been removed as inland convection has
outpaced axis of modest instability. Any stronger storms are
expected to remain offshore.

...Leitman.. 11/19/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/

....Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle...
Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited
today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain
centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to
the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm
sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will
largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable
cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland.

The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt)
south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today
across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado
could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the
coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture
present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated
damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along
or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the
severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall.

$$

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