Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 19 2024 05:43:14

ACUS01 KWNS 190543
SWODY1
SPC AC 190541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity today.

....Central Gulf Coast...

A mid/upper shortwave trough will continue to lift north across the
Great Lakes today, while another upper trough develops east across
the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Any large-scale ascent
associated with these features will remain displaced to the north of
the Gulf coast region. Nevertheless, strong low-level shear will be
in place, with around 35-40 kt south/southwesterly flow just above
the surface through around 850 mb. While deep-layer flow will be
mostly unidirectional, some modest veering with height through 1 km
will support enlarged, curved hodographs.

Despite favorable shear for organized convection, instability will
be limited. Surface dewpoints will be near 70 F near the coast, with
mid/upper 60s F further north across parts of southern to central
MS/AL. However, destabilization will be limited by poor lapse rates,
widespread cloudiness leading to weak daytime heating, and ongoing
showers/thunderstorms. Given strength of low-level flow, even meager
instability (around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) will support a few strong
wind gusts with thunderstorms progressing east across the region
ahead of a cold front. A brief tornado or waterspout also is
possible, mainly closer to the coast where 70s F dewpoints will be
present.

...Leitman/Wendt.. 11/19/2024

$$

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