Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 19 2024 00:37:14

ACUS01 KWNS 190037
SWODY1
SPC AC 190035

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...

....SUMMARY...
A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds will persist
into late evening or the early overnight hours across the Lower
Mississippi Valley.

....Mid-MO Valley to Lower MS Valley...

Severe probabilities have been removed from most of east TX
northward into MO/KS/NE/IA based on current location of the surface
cold front and ongoing convection. Any remaining convection across
the Mid-MO Valley vicinity will continue to weaken with eastward
extent given a dearth of instability.

Further south, severe probabilities remain unchanged (other than
trimming behind ongoing QLCS) across the Lower MS Valley. A risk for
isolated severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes remain possible,
especially over the next few hours. By late evening into the
overnight hours, severe potential is expected to become lower with
eastward extent across southern MS/southeast LA and southern AL as
large-scale ascent is rapidly becoming further displaced from better
boundary layer moisture. Strong vertical shear will persist, but
surface-based parcels likely will be unable to realize the favorable
SRH environment, limiting severe potential with eastward extent.

...Leitman.. 11/19/2024

$$

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