Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2234
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 18 2024 18:41:41

ACUS11 KWNS 181841
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181841=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-182045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Areas affected...east TX...western LA...and far southwest AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 181841Z - 182045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing potential for a couple tornadic supercells
should occur by late afternoon as warm-sector storms intensify ahead
of a outflow-reinforced cold front. A tornado watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...As surface temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s as
far northeast as the greater Houston Metro Area, warm-sector showers
have deepened downstream within the warm conveyor across southeast
TX. A 17Z sounding from Texas A&M at CLL well sampled the
pre-frontal environment ahead of the outflow-reinforced cold front
that has been marching east across east TX. While tropospheric lapse
rates are weak, enhanced low-level shear persists where surface
winds remain slightly backed ahead of the front (as shown in the 18Z
LCH/SHV soundings). Surface winds/low-level flow have slowly veered
farther southwest (where temperatures are warmer) per HGX VWP data,
suggesting that initial storms might struggle to produce low-level
mesocyclones until convection spreads farther northeast. The
undercutting nature of the front will also limit tornado potential
after passage. The more favorable kinematic/thermodynamic
environment will probably become centered across the Sabine Valley
in the next couple hours. This corridor will be monitored for a
possible tornado watch.

...Grams/Smith.. 11/18/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4ULJkpFNeWZxJ__k331q1WdV8JIKufsfMqPYJ7hI4UZuuTPGN3pl7gHXV_sQURzo68fl9yO9a=
IMD97k4ejWdADz4J7M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   29619439 30039508 30969517 32139442 33149415 33439380
            33259302 32629270 31939266 30609282 29809328 29619439=20


=3D =3D =3D
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