Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2228
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 18 2024 05:37:03

ACUS11 KWNS 180536
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180536=20
TXZ000-180730-

Mesoscale Discussion 2228
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Areas affected...portions of western Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 709...

Valid 180536Z - 180730Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 709
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong storms continue in a frontal band crossing western
Texas, where damaging winds and marginal hail are possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a broken band of locally
vigorous convection occurring ahead of a cold front
organizing/moving eastward across far West Texas at this time.  Very
strong flow aloft -- including winds in excess of 50 kt just 1km AGL
-- continues to support local storm organization, including bowing
segments at least transiently organizing within the convective band.

At this time, weak instability remains a limiting factor, in terms
of more robust severe risk.  With that said, a surface warm front
continues shifting rapidly northward/northwestward across central
Texas, at the leading edge of a high theta-e (low 70s dewpoints)
airmass.  As storms advance slowly eastward, and higher theta-e air
continues advecting northwestward, an eventual uptick in risk is
expected.

...Goss.. 11/18/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_KDitR7wni9ZipmSprbZni5YgY8sGTLTsELlusdnG-6Q_E0v1MYPdxnCK_VW3t8Ea3TeZOvNO=
mpDVGPDnYT_C9vt4mo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   30500320 32180266 34000133 33730002 33019896 31559970
            30510143 30500320=20


=3D =3D =3D
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