Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 18 2024 00:38:33

ACUS01 KWNS 180038
SWODY1
SPC AC 180036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts
of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and
continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe
gusts and a few tornadoes.

....01z Update - TX/OK...

No changes have been made to severe probabilities/categories with
the 01z update.

Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over the next
several hours across west TX, with the severe risk increasing in the
03z-06z time period when the low-level jet begins to markedly
increase. This activity is expected to quickly develop into a
line/QLCS and spread east/northeast across parts of central and
western north TX into southwest OK tonight into early Monday
morning. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes remain possible across the
broader level 1 to 3 risk area. A corridor of Enhanced risk (level 3
of 5) is expected across portions of western north TX into southwest
OK closer to the deepening surface low, particularly in the 8z-12z
time frame. Scattered severe gusts, some near 75 mph, and a few
tornadoes are possible in this area.

Uncertainty remains regarding the northward extent of greater severe
potential. Surface-based instability may creep into central OK near
the end of the period around 11z-12z, or perhaps just after.
Regardless, strong wind field near/just above the surface may still
pose a damaging wind risk, and perhaps a tornado, with early morning
storms.

...Leitman.. 11/18/2024

$$

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