Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Nov 17 2024 17:31:59 ACUS02 KWNS 171731 SWODY2 SPC AC 171730 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ....Synopsis... A negatively tilted and pronounced mid-level trough over the southern Plains will quickly eject into the MS Valley in tandem with a rapidly deepening surface low tomorrow (Monday). A potentially severe squall line is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period across north TX into central OK. Through the afternoon though, stronger upper support should become increasingly displaced from the better low-level moisture and instability to the south, supporting a more isolated severe threat across portions of the MO Valley into the southern MS Valley later in the day toward evening. An additional round of isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms may also develop closer to the surface low over central and eastern KS tomorrow afternoon as well. ....Southern Plains into the MO Valley... A QLCS/squall-line should be in progress immediately ahead of a surface low across southwestern OK into northwestern TX at 12Z Monday morning. The squall line will continue to move east-northeast with the surface low amid a 70+ kt southerly low-level jet, overspread by 70-90 kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow from the ejecting trough. Large and curved hodographs should precede the squall line amid 500 J/kg SBCAPE, driven mainly by mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath poor mid-level lapse rates. Despite meager buoyancy through the troposphere, strong forcing for ascent and impressive deep-layer/low-level shear profiles may still support severe gusts and a few tornadoes during the morning hours. Through the afternoon and evening hours, QG ascent associated with the northeastward ejecting mid-level trough, and the surface low, will outpace the richer low-level moisture closer to the Red River, which may dampen the severe threat to a degree. Nonetheless, the persistence of strong shear and forcing with the eastward-tracking squall line will support the potential for a severe gust or a tornado. ....Southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley... As the mid-level trough and surface cyclone track toward the Mid-MS Valley through the day, trailing portions of the aforementioned squall line will interact with an increasingly moist and unstable boundary layer across southeastern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Furthermore, guidance consensus shows that the entrance region of the low-level jet may also persist across eastern TX and points east ahead of the squall line, encouraging modestly elongated and curved hodographs and 200+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH. As such, a couple of severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two may develop if more pronounced mesovortices or embedded supercell structures can develop within the squall line. ....Central and eastern KS... Behind the initial squall line and broader cloudy/precipitation-laden WAA regime, some clearing may take place immediately ahead of the surface low track, allowing for marginal boundary-layer destabilization. As such, a couple of thunderstorms may develop ahead of the surface low amid modestly steep tropospheric lapse rates and unidirectional vertical wind profiles/strong speed shear. Any of the more robust updrafts that can develop may produce a severe gust, tornado, or instance of marginally severe hail during the afternoon. ...Squitieri.. 11/17/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .