Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 17 2024 05:33:25

ACUS01 KWNS 170533
SWODY1
SPC AC 170531

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY MONDAY...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts
of western and central Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening
through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and
possibly a few tornadoes.

....Western/Central TX into Southwest OK and vicinity...

A potent upper trough over northwest Mexico will become negatively
tilted as it ejects east/northeast into the southern High Plains
today and tonight. As this occurs, an 80+ kt southwesterly 500 mb
speed max will overspread western TX late in the period, with a
broader area of 50-60 kt southwesterly mid/upper flow across much of
the southern Plains. Strong height falls are forecast after 06z
across western/central TX into OK. In response, a deepening surface
low is expected to develop over the Permian Basin/TX South Plains by
late evening into the early overnight hours. The low will shift
northeast into southwest OK by 12z Monday.

Increasing south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport low/mid
60s F dewpoints north and west across central/western TX and much of
OK. By late evening, strong forcing for ascent will begin to
overspread eastern NM into western TX and areas of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to increase in the vicinity of the
deepening surface low, as well as northeast along the warm front
extending across western north TX into OK. As the upper trough
ejects, a 40+ kt low-level jet will overspread the region in the
03-06z time frame. A QLCS is expected to develop ahead of an
eastward-advancing cold front, bringing a risk for severe storms
overnight into early Monday.

While the low-level warm advection regime will transport 60s F
dewpoints across the region, poor low and midlevel lapse rates will
limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, robust forcing and
strong deep-layer flow will support a risk for severe wind gusts.
Furthermore, modest directional shear coupled with rapidly
increasing wind speeds with height will result in enlarged, looping
low-level hodographs. Additionally, as the low-level jet increases,
0-1 km SRH will increase to around 200-400 m2/s2. This should
support some potential for a few tornadoes within line-embedded
mesovortex formations, especially in the 7-12z time frame from
north-central/western north TX into southwest OK.

At least some risk will likely extend northward into central OK
where a warm front will be oriented east/northeast near the
I-40/I-44 corridor near the end of the forecast period. Isolated
strong gusts and perhaps a tornado may occur across this area near
daybreak, though confidence is lower compared to points further
south.

...Leitman/Wendt.. 11/17/2024

$$

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