Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 16 2024 19:55:21

ACUS01 KWNS 161955
SWODY1
SPC AC 161953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

....Discussion...
Added a small thunderstorm area over eastern KS/lower MO Valley for
weak thunderstorm activity that will probably persist for a couple
more hours.  Elsewhere, the forecast was not changed.

...Smith.. 11/16/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/

....Synopsis/Discussion...
Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough
tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature
will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies
into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame,
associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will
contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest.
Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding
the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible.

Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of
showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related
low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability,
though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential.

$$

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