Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Nov 16 2024 19:32:20 ACUS03 KWNS 161932 SWODY3 SPC AC 161931 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ....Synopsis... A surface low will deepen while pivoting northeast across the central Plains, driven by a negatively tilted mid-level trough poised to eject into the MS Valley region from the southern Rockies on Monday. Widespread precipitation is expected to precede the surface low, with a squall line trailing the surface low over the southern Plains at the start of the period into the afternoon hours. Scant buoyancy, driven by strong low-level warm-air advection due to a pronounced low-level jet, will coincide with a strong shear environment to support early morning severe potential with the squall line over parts of the southern Plains. Isolated severe potential may also accompany the surface low over central and eastern KS during the afternoon. ....Southern Plains to MS Valley... A mature squall line will likely traverse a corridor of around 500 J/kg SBCAPE over northern TX into OK on Monday morning. Despite poor lapse rates, a 60+ kt southerly low-level jet will encourage some boundary-layer destabilization via moistening. This intense low-level jet, overspread by 50-80 kt southwesterly mid-level flow from the approaching trough, will encourage enlarged/curved hodographs ahead of the squall line, supporting the potential for a few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two, especially for robust portions of the squall line closest to the surface low, where low-level shear will be strongest. Through the remainder of the period, stronger upper support will drift northward with the mid-level trough and attendant surface low, potentially supporting squall-line weakening in the process. Given strong low-level flow ahead of the squall line, any mechanical downward momentum transport may encourage isolated damaging gusts, with the eastward extent of the Marginal Risk/severe threat highly dependent on the maintenance of the squall line. ....Kansas into Missouri... Guidance consensus depicts some strengthening of the surface low through the day on Monday, which will coincide with strong northward moisture advection and diurnal heating. Forecast soundings near the triple point, which is poised to be somewhere over southern into central KS by afternoon, suggests that some clearing and steepening of low-level lapse rates may occur. Should this be the case, any robust updrafts that manage to materialize may support a marginal severe hail threat, and a tornado also cannot be ruled out. Greater severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if future guidance can demonstrate a consensus, with consistency, in appreciable airmass recovery near the triple point. It is uncertain how far east the severe threat will continue into MO. ...Squitieri.. 11/16/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .