Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Nov 16 2024 08:21:19 FOUS30 KWBC 160821 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 321 AM EST Sat Nov 16 2024 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024 - 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Campbell Day 2 Valid 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024 - 12Z Mon Nov 18 2024 ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... A southern stream cutoff low is expected to eject into the Plains and be accompanied with very impressive IVT, PWs and forcing as it moves across Texas and Oklahoma by Sunday evening into the=20 overnight hours. This should be enough to overcome the limited=20 forecast instability and result in deep convection and heavy=20 rainfall rates across portions of the Southern Rockies and the=20 adjacent Southern/Central Plains. Guidance continues to suggest 2-4" of rain, but would expect isolated swaths as high as 4-6"=20 within this setup. The overall progressive nature of the system and limited instability will cap the upper bound of rainfall=20 totals...but this system is dynamic enough with plentiful moisture=20 to suggest at least localized flash flooding is likely. A Marginal Risk area remains in effect for central/eastern New Mexico, northern Texas, most of Oklahoma and southern Kansas. The inherited Slight Risk area saw a minor expansion to reflect the latest trends and WPC QPF and spans from northern Texas/panhandle to western Oklahoma. ....Coastal Oregon and northwest California... A fairly progressive, weak/moderate atmospheric river will be ongoing across the region. Total rain of 2-4" (through 12z Mon)=20 and hourly rainfall rates possibly approaching 0.5" within a narrow southward shifting axis suggest that some minor flooding issues=20 could arise along coastal areas/mountains. A Marginal Risk area remains in effect along the coastline. Campbell Day 3 Valid 12Z Mon Nov 18 2024 - 12Z Tue Nov 19 2024 ....THERE ARE MARGINAL RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND THE PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... ....Central U.S. ... The precipitation shield will shift eastward as the cold front=20 advances further into the Plains. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected from northern Texas to southern Minnesota with areal average of 1 to 3 inches. The higher amounts will likely=20 concentrate over eastern Kansas, eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. A Marginal Risk area was maintained with minor adjustments for this issuance.=20 ....Gulf Coast... A plume of enhanced tropical moisture will likely advect northward through the Gulf of Mexico well in advance of tropical cyclone=20 Sara; which will increase the potential for heavy rain and localized flooding concerns along portions of the Gulf Coast. A Marginal Risk area is in effect from southeast Texas to southern Mississippi. Campbell Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ktYQzgBTrwpOexHPtJ1HfNupWWTmjrNfGrDnoQ1SzV3= olWiM2_Pu8Nk6iBYi0TrORfPYbAevL4T6vc0vA3gctr8ffg$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ktYQzgBTrwpOexHPtJ1HfNupWWTmjrNfGrDnoQ1SzV3= olWiM2_Pu8Nk6iBYi0TrORfPYbAevL4T6vc0vA3gAzu1cqU$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ktYQzgBTrwpOexHPtJ1HfNupWWTmjrNfGrDnoQ1SzV3= olWiM2_Pu8Nk6iBYi0TrORfPYbAevL4T6vc0vA3gPQD24cU$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .