Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Nov 16 2024 08:21:45 ACUS03 KWNS 160821 SWODY3 SPC AC 160820 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ....Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley... At daybreak on Monday, a negatively-tilted mid-level trough will be in the southern High Plains, with an associated mid-level jet moving through the base of the system. As the mid-level jet moves eastward across north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning, severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of an organized line segment. The potential for wind gusts could extend south-southwestward into parts of central Texas. During the day, the line is expected to weaken as the mid-level system moves away toward the northeast. Isolated strong to severe gusts will still be possible with convection that develops in the afternoon in very weak instability ahead of the trough. This potential could be greatest from the lower Missouri Valley southward into the Ozarks, along and near the axis of a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. The risk for severe gusts is expected to be marginal. Additional storms are expected to develop during the afternoon and evening from far east Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Some model solutions develop a convective complex in southern Louisiana Monday evening. Although there may be enough instability for an isolated wind-damage threat, large-scale ascent will be limited helping to keep any threat marginal. ...Broyles.. 11/16/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .