Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 16 2024 05:40:47

ACUS01 KWNS 160540
SWODY1
SPC AC 160539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains
northeastward into the western Great Lakes.

....Discussion...

Seasonally strong upper trough is advancing across the western US
late this evening. This feature is forecast to bifurcate with a
notable northern short wave expected to shift into the upper MS
Valley late, while a southern branch settles south across the lower
CO River Valley. Strongest mid-level height falls will spread across
the northern Plains/upper MS Valley during the latter half of the
period, and this should encourage low-level warm advection to focus
across the upper Great Lakes as LLJ strengthens into western WI by
17/00z.

Latest model guidance does not suggest significant boundary-layer
destabilization ahead of the synoptic front, with 0-3km lapse rates
expected to remain rather weak from KS, northeast into WI. While
frontal convergence will contribute to isolated convection, the
primary focus for deep, sustained updrafts will be across WI where
the strongest forcing/low-level warm advection will be noted.
Primary concern for lightning will be with elevated activity during
the later half of the period, though a few flashes could be noted
with trailing frontal showers.

...Darrow/Wendt.. 11/16/2024

$$

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