Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Nov 15 2024 19:17:14 ACUS03 KWNS 151917 SWODY3 SPC AC 151916 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening into Monday morning, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two. ....Southern Plains... A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to deepen/mature as it progresses eastward across northern Mexico into the southern High Plains on Sunday. By early Monday morning, expectation is for this shortwave to have matured into an mid-latitude cyclone, with the mid-level circulation centered over southeast NM and associated surface low farther northeast over southwest OK/far northwest TX. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with a 80-100 kt 500-mb jet rounding the base of the system and ejecting into the southern High Plains late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Substantial mass response will precede this wave, with notable low-level moisture advection anticipated across the southern Plains. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach the Permian Basin/TX South Plains ahead the surface low (and attendant dryline and cold front) associated with this system. Even with this increasing low-level moisture, only modest destabilization is anticipated (i.e. MLCAPE less than 800 J/kg), owing predominantly to poor lapse rates. This minimal buoyancy will be countered by strong large-scale forcing for ascent as the wave becomes increasingly negatively tilted. 12-hr height falls from 120 to 150 m are anticipated over much of the southern High Plains from 00Z to 12Z Monday. Elevated thunderstorm development is expected first across southeast NM/far west TX early Sunday evening. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase eastward/northeastward throughout the evening while the surface low deepens and its associated cold front begins to overtake the preceding drying and sharpen. This cold front is then forecast to move quickly eastward across west TX early Monday morning, with strong to severe thunderstorm anticipated along this front. A linear storm mode is anticipated, with strong gusts as the primary risk. A few embedded QLCS circulations are possible as well, particularly near the surface low where some backing of the low-level winds is more plausible. Given the robust low to mid-level flow, there may be a corridor of relatively greater severe potential where buoyancy, lift, and overall convective evolution align. However, given confidence in these mesoscale details is low at this forecast range, will maintain 15%/Slight-risk-equivalent with this outlook. ...Mosier.. 11/15/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .