Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Nov 15 2024 17:07:09 ACUS02 KWNS 151707 SWODY2 SPC AC 151705 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from the central Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes, but no severe threat is expected. ....Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off the southern CA/northern Baja Coast, covering much of the western/central CONUS early Saturday morning. The mean upper trough is forecast to gradually progress eastward throughout the day while a pair of embedded shortwave troughs evolve eastward/southeastward. The northernmost shortwave will likely progress across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest while the southernmost wave progresses southeastward across southern CA into the northern/central Baja Peninsula. By early Sunday morning, enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is expected to extend between these two shortwaves, from northern Mexico across the southern High Plains and central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Surface low associated with the northern shortwave trough will likely begin the day over western SD before then progressing northeastward across the central/eastern Dakotas and northwestern MN throughout the period. An associated cold front will push eastward/southeastward across the northern and central Plains and into the Upper Midwest in the wake of this low. Airmass modification is anticipated across the Plains throughout the period as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains shortwave trough. However, this early-stage moisture return will remain confined to the southern Plains where warm mid-level temperatures will preclude any buoyancy. A plume of elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection farther north, beginning across parts of the central Plains late Saturday afternoon/early evening and continuing into the Upper Midwest late Saturday night into early Sunday. Highest coverage is expected across WI early Sunday morning. Limited buoyancy throughout these areas will keep storm strength modest and keeping the severe-thunderstorm threat low. ...Mosier.. 11/15/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .