Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 15 2024 05:27:09

ACUS01 KWNS 150527
SWODY1
SPC AC 150525

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities are low today.

....Discussion...

Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10 percent across the CONUS
today.

Strong upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast
early this morning. Substantial mid-level height falls will spread
across the Great Basin/southwestern US ahead of this feature as a
strong 500mb speed max translates into southern UT. Cooling profiles
and steepening lapse rates favor weak, shallow convection north of
the jet. However, buoyancy is forecast to be very weak and updrafts
should struggle to attain levels necessary for lightning discharge.

Strengthening/deepening offshore flow across the Carolinas favor the
primary focus for deep convection being well east of land by the
start of the period.

...Darrow/Wendt.. 11/15/2024

$$

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