Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 15 2024 00:43:46

FOUS30 KWBC 150043
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
743 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Day 1
Valid 01Z Fri Nov 15 2024 - 12Z Fri Nov 15 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

....01Z update...
Similar thinking to the previous outlook applies, where in a=20
worst-case scenario, localized flash flooding could develop in the=20
vicinity of the Outer Banks/eastern NC/southeastern VA. There is=20
good consensus for 3+ inches from the 18Z HREF to fall through 12Z=20
in/around Cape Hatteras, but potential for high rainfall rates=20
remains below the FFG thresholds. 18Z HREF does snow high
probabilities (70+ percent) of >1"/hr rainfall rates across the NC
OBX, including Cape Hatteras, between 06-10Z. Probabilities of 2+=20
in/hr rates peak between 40-50% between 08-10Z, while peak 3hr=20
probs of 3+ in/hr rates top out between 50-60%. Latest 3 hourly FFG
across the NC OBX is 4+ inches, so again even with the latest=20
ensemble guidance, it does continue to appear these rainfall rates=20
will fall short of the latest FFG thresholds. This as the greater=20
deep-layer instability (MUCAPEs over 500 J/Kg) remains offshore.=20

Hurley/Otto

....Previous discussion...
Maturing surface cyclone off the VA/NC coast will amplify rainfall
prospects over the VA Tidewater into Eastern NC late this afternoon
and evening with a developing axis of deformation driving elevated
convective concerns in the aforementioned areas. Totals between=20
1.5-3" are forecast within these zones with some minor flooding=20
possible over urban zones and the immediate coast, coinciding with=20
coastal flooding likely occurring. Rainfall rates will fall short=20
of the necessary criteria to meet FFG exceedance, however a non-
zero threat will exist for flash flood concerns across Northern NC=20
into Southern and Southeast VA in urban zones that are more prone=20
to flooding prospects. This is still below the 5% threshold=20
necessary for flash flooding leading to a continued nil ERO, but=20
non-zero threat.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 15 2024 - 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024 - 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6Wt07jkfTguuNanmuSfAergUGPgB4uSKDvvPPnXMSaEY=
jMKz9d5ukwGbOwsIMNlLLEC5NZ1JV2YoY9NSgavjHRUInAM$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6Wt07jkfTguuNanmuSfAergUGPgB4uSKDvvPPnXMSaEY=
jMKz9d5ukwGbOwsIMNlLLEC5NZ1JV2YoY9NSgavjPesaROs$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6Wt07jkfTguuNanmuSfAergUGPgB4uSKDvvPPnXMSaEY=
jMKz9d5ukwGbOwsIMNlLLEC5NZ1JV2YoY9NSgavjYgm5bZk$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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