Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 14 2024 19:36:32

ACUS01 KWNS 141936
SWODY1
SPC AC 141935

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS...

....SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms posing a risk for gusty winds
and perhaps a tornado could still occur across parts of coastal
North Carolina this evening/tonight.

....20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Some of the
latest CAM guidance continues to show potential for surface-based
storms to impinge on the coastal Carolinas tonight, accompanied by
an isolated damaging gust/tornado threat.

...Squitieri.. 11/14/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/

....Coastal Carolinas...
Within an amplifying upper flow regime over the CONUS, an upper
trough over the Midwest/Upper Great Lakes will progress
east-southeastward toward the central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas through tonight. In response, steady surface
cyclogenesis (9-10mb/12hr) is expected tonight along the coastal
Carolinas, with some potential inland advancement of the offshore
warm/moist sector where middle 60s F surface dewpoints exist in
proximity to the Gulf Stream.

Scenario-typical short-term model characteristics and biases are
experientially apparent in latest available guidance, with recent
NAM runs most optimistic for near-coastal/just-inland cyclogenesis
and destabilization, potentially too much so as compared to more
offshore GFS/ECMWF guidance given the expected increasingly
prevalent precipitation inland tonight. Regardless, some
near-coastal potential will exist tonight for a couple of
supercells/severe-caliber severe storms potentially capable of wind
damage and/or a tornado, with the North Carolina Outer Banks having
the primary vulnerability late this evening into the overnight.

$$

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