Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Nov 14 2024 15:58:54 FOUS30 KWBC 141558 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1058 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Day 1 Valid 16Z Thu Nov 14 2024 - 12Z Fri Nov 15 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. ....16Z update... Similar thinking to the previous outlook applies, where in a worst-case scenario, localized flash flooding could develop in the vicinity of the Outer Banks/eastern NC/southeastern VA. However, the 12Z hires guidance has trended down from last night with any appreciable instability remaining limited to the barrier islands.=20 There is good consensus for 3+ inches from the 12Z HREF to fall=20 through 12Z in/around Cape Hatteras, but potential for high=20 rainfall rates remains below the FFG thresholds. See additional=20 forecast details below... Otto ....previous discussion follows... Maturing surface cyclone off the VA/NC coast will amplify rainfall prospects over the VA Tidewater into Eastern NC late this afternoon and evening with a developing axis of deformation driving elevated convective concerns in the aforementioned areas. Totals between 1.5-3" are forecast within these zones with some minor flooding possible over urban zones and the immediate coast, coinciding with coastal flooding likely occurring. Rainfall rates will fall short of the necessary criteria to meet FFG exceedance, however a non-zero threat will exist for flash flood concerns across Northern NC into Southern and Southeast VA in urban zones that are more prone to flooding prospects. This is still below the 5% threshold necessary for flash flooding leading to a continued nil ERO, but non-zero threat. Kleebauer Day 2 Valid 12Z Fri Nov 15 2024 - 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Kleebauer Day 3 Valid 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024 - 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Kleebauer Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5vkUq2N8P0dxR3ezW8fyZiQlUS6d4neAXYv78X6dVMAT= lc8GEFns9ob_pvQKlk4C9kJlygkF0Y-m0Zi8u9N1BG_myuE$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5vkUq2N8P0dxR3ezW8fyZiQlUS6d4neAXYv78X6dVMAT= lc8GEFns9ob_pvQKlk4C9kJlygkF0Y-m0Zi8u9N1Z71LC3o$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5vkUq2N8P0dxR3ezW8fyZiQlUS6d4neAXYv78X6dVMAT= lc8GEFns9ob_pvQKlk4C9kJlygkF0Y-m0Zi8u9N1wHuKWfo$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .